Skewed distributions of scientists’ productivity: a research program for the empirical analysis

AbstractOnly a few scientists are able to publish a substantial number of papers every year; most of the scientists have an output of only a few publications or no publications at all. Several theories (e.g., the “sacred spark” theory) have been proposed in the past to explain these productivity differences that are complementary and focus on different aspects in the publication process. This study is intended to introduce a research program for studying productivity differences in science (skewed distributions of scientists’ productivity). The program is based on the Anna Karenina Principle (AKP). The AKP states that success in research is the result of several prerequisites that are multiplicatively related. Great success results from prerequisites that must be all given. If at least one prerequisite is not given, failure follows, whereby the failure is specific to the set of given and missing prerequisites. High productivity is given for the few scientists who fulfill all prerequisites (e.g., high motivation, pronounced creativity, reputational professional position, early important papers in high-impact journals), and low productivity is connected to a specific combination of missing and fulfilled prerequisites for many scientists. Besides the AKP as theoretical principle, the program for studying productivity differences includes a mathematical concept explaining skewed distributions and statistical methods for empirical productivity analyses.